Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Will Subprime Car Loan be the Next Big Short ?

Many investors believe that the next big short will be in the subprime car loan market.

Subprime car debt is becoming the latest problem area in finance, with consumers falling behind on most of their loans, Morgan Stanley analysts said this week. Wall Street banks have become more willing to underwrite asset-backed securities packaging the loans as new regulations brought in after the financial crash make it harder for them to make a profit. Read more

However yesterday Bloomberg reported that car sales are in decline.

Recent history suggests American automobile sales indicate subsequent moves in U.S. equities. Declines in 2011 and 2012 were followed by a retreat in the S&P 500 index, and gains in the fall of 2015 came before a market rally. While the relationship isn’t exact, and correlation doesn’t equal causation, the surprising slump in vehicle sales last month comes just as investors are questioning how much to believe off-the-charts surveys of American confidence levels. Read more

Can these two conditions coexist ?

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