Using Gold Futures to Hedge Equity Portfolios

Hedging is a risk management strategy used to offset potential losses in one investment by taking an opposing position in a related asset. By using financial instruments such as options, futures, or derivatives, investors can protect their portfolios from adverse price movements. The primary goal of hedging is not to maximize profits but to minimize potential losses and provide stability.

Reference [1] explores hedging basic materials portfolios using gold futures. The authors pointed out,

Seven different portfolio construction methods were selected for the study, which used historical data from 01/03/2018 to 01/03/2022. Excluding gold futures, five portfolios (equal weight, two Monte Carlo, and two mean-variance portfolios) from 01/03/2022 to 01/03/2023 and from 01/03/2023 to 01/11/2023 were loss-making, and only two SLSP portfolios showed a positive return. The practical application of the basis trading strategy revealed that the inclusion of short gold futures in portfolios did not change the direction of the result but mitigated both profits and losses. Thus, the basis trading strategy acted as a hedge during the two testing periods…

Practically, portfolio hedging using futures contracts can stabilize an investment portfolio, but stability comes at a price. The proposed investment strategy using gold futures could be applied by risk-averse investors who would like to invest in the commodities market but are not prepared to take high risks. Furthermore, the elaborated strategy can be used by investment managers who seek to satisfy different groups of clients by offering them well-informed hedging strategies and various levels of risk management.

Basically, the authors concluded that hedging with gold futures can reduce the PnL volatility of base metal equity portfolios.

While we find the research objective commendable, i.e., hedging to reduce a portfolio's PnL volatility, we have several reservations:

• The studies appear to be performed with in-sample data, with no out-of-sample results presented.
• A mining company can perform hedging on its own, making further hedging a case of double hedging.
• From our experience executing pair trades of gold stocks versus gold futures, constructing and managing such a pair is not trivial, leading us to question the viability and feasibility of the proposed approach.

Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1] Stasytytė, V., Maknickienė, N., & Martinkutė-Kaulienė, R. (2024), Hedging basic materials equity portfolios using gold futures, Journal of International Studies, 17(2), 132-145.

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Income Summary Account: Definition, Meaning, vs Income Statement, Example

Companies must carry over balances from one year to another for the next accounting period. However, they cannot do so directly to revenue and expense accounts. Therefore, companies must use an income summary account.

What is an Income Summary Account?

An income summary account is a temporary account used in the accounting process to aggregate all the revenue and expense account balances at the end of an accounting period. This process helps reset the revenue and expense accounts to zero, preparing them for the next period's transactions. It allows companies to determine the net profit or loss during a year.

After summarizing the period's revenues and expenses in the income summary account, the resulting net income or net loss gets transferred to the retained earnings or capital account, depending on the type of business entity. This final transfer closes the income summary account and updates the company's equity to reflect the financial results of the period.

How does the Income Summary Account work?

The income summary account functions as a temporary holding account during the closing process in accounting, aggregating all the revenue and expense balances at the end of an accounting period. The process begins by transferring the balances of all revenue accounts to the income summary account, which involves debiting the revenue accounts and crediting the income summary account.

Subsequently, all expense accounts are closed by transferring their balances to the income summary account, debiting the income summary account, and crediting the expense accounts. Once the net income or net loss is determined, the income summary account is closed by transferring its balance to the retained earnings or capital account.

If the result is net income, the income summary account is debited, and the retained earnings are credited. Conversely, if there is a net loss, the retained earnings are debited, and the income summary account is credited. This final transfer updates the equity accounts to reflect the period’s financial performance.

Income Summary Account vs Income Statement: What are the differences?

The differences between the income summary account and the income statement come from the following points.

Purpose

The income summary account is a temporary account used during the closing process to consolidate all revenue and expense balances and determine net income or net loss for the period. On the other hand, the income statement is a critical financial report summarizing a company's revenues, expenses, and profits or losses over a specific reporting period.

Function

The income summary account acts as an intermediary step to reset revenue and expense accounts to zero, preparing them for the next accounting period. In contrast, the income statement informs stakeholders about the company's financial performance and profitability, aiding in analysis and decision-making.

Duration

The income summary account exists only during the closing process and gets reset once net income or net loss is transferred to retained earnings or capital accounts. However, the income statement is prepared for regular reporting periods (monthly, quarterly, annually) and serves as a permanent record.

Reporting

The income summary account is an internal tool and doesn’t become a part of the financial statements. On the other hand, the income statement is a part of the company's official financial statements, reported externally by accounting standards.

Conclusion

The income summary account is an internal tool to determine net profit or loss by aggregating all revenue and expense account balances. By doing so, it also resets those balances in the relevant accounts. It is a part of the closing process. The income summary account differs from the income statement in various crucial aspects.

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Airbag Options: What They Are and How to Price

Airbag options are a new structured product that has gained popularity among investors in the over-the-counter derivatives market. They offer protection against downside losses, similar to how an airbag protects in a car crash. Airbag options provide investors with downside risk protection in the event of a market "collision." However, if the "collision" is too severe, the "airbag" can be punctured, leading to potential losses (this is known as a "knock-in" event).

Airbag options are path-dependent due to knock-in events, making traditional risk-neutral pricing formulas inapplicable because it's challenging to determine when the underlying asset hits the barrier. Closed-form pricing formulas, like the Black-Scholes for European options, are usually unattainable for these options. This problem was addressed by proposing the first passage time approach, which describes the random hitting time and derives its distribution by studying the maximum distribution of a Brownian motion. This method simplifies pricing path-dependent options to calculating an expectation, making closed-form pricing formulas achievable.

Reference [1] studies airbag-type option pricing with continuous monitoring under the MEJD, DEJD, and Black-Scholes models using the first passage time approach. The authors pointed out,

In this paper, we consider the pricing of airbag options, an emerging derivative in the finance market but has few studies in the literature, especially from a mathematical point of view. In line with the idea of providing protection against downside risk, we further propose two new types of airbag options with enhanced downside risk protections compared to the original one, namely, the airbag-TB option and the airbag-ER option. Regarding the quantitative pricing methodology, we propose a pricing framework for the three types of airbag options under the MEJD, DEJD and BS models. Closed-form pricing formulas under the MEJD and DEJD models are obtained whereas fully analytical pricing formulas are derived for the BS model.

In short, closed-form solutions were developed to price airbag options, and the results were favourably comparable to those obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.

This is another important contribution to the literature on financial derivatives. Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1]  Zheng Liu, Xiaosong Qian, Jing Yao and Yinghui Dong, Pricing airbag option via first passage time approach, Quantitative Finance, July 2024.

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Dividend Growth Rate: Definition, Formula, Calculation, Example, Importance

Dividend growth rate is a key factor for anyone interested in investing. It's important because it shows how much a company's dividends have increased over time.

This rate can be a good sign of a company's health and potential for future growth. When dividends grow steadily, it often means the company is doing well and could continue to do so.

Understanding this rate can help investors make smarter choices about where to put their money.

What is the Dividend Growth Rate?

The dividend growth rate shows how much a company's dividends have increased on average each year.

When a company has a history of steady dividend growth, it often means it might continue to grow in the future, which is a good sign for long-term profitability.

Investors look at this rate to gauge a company's health and decide whether it's a smart place to invest their money.

In simple words, dividend growth rate is the percentage increase in dividends paid out to shareholders over time. It is usually calculated on an annual basis so it can be a reliable indicator of a company's long-term potential.

Calculating Dividend Growth Rate

The formula for calculating the dividend growth rate is

DGR = [(Recent dividend (D2) - Previous dividend (D1)) x 100] / Previous dividend

Where,

D2 = recent dividend

D1 = previous dividend

The resulting percentage shows the average annual growth rate of a company's dividends.

For example, if a company paid out $2 in dividends last year and has recently increased it to $2.50, the calculation would be:

[(2.50 - 2) x 100] / 2 = 25%

This means that the company's dividend growth rate is 25%.

Importance of Dividend Growth Rate for Investors

Here is why dividend growth rate is an important metric

1. Indicator of Financial Health

A steady dividend growth rate often shows that a company is in good financial shape.

Consistent increases in dividends suggest the company is making enough profits to share with its investors. This can be a strong sign that the company is well-managed and stable.

2. Potential for Higher Returns

Companies with a solid dividend growth rate might offer higher returns over time. As dividends increase, investors could earn more from their investments.

This growth can also lead to stock price appreciation, providing both income and potential capital gains.

3. Inflation Hedge

Growing dividends can help investors keep up with inflation. When the cost of living rises, so does the need for higher income. Dividends that grow over time can provide a rising stream of income, helping to maintain purchasing power.

4. Attractive to Long-Term Investors

A strong dividend growth rate makes a company appealing to long-term investors. It suggests that the company is committed to rewarding shareholders over the years.

This commitment can build trust and encourage investors to hold onto their shares for longer periods.

5. Signal of Future Profitability

Companies that consistently grow their dividends often signal future profitability. It shows confidence in ongoing business success and the ability to generate more income.

Investors see this as a positive sign that the company will continue to perform well in the future.

Conclusion

DGR or dividend growth rate is a significant factor to consider when investing in stocks. For business owners, it is a sign of the company's health and stability. It's a common and important metric used by investors to evaluate a company's potential for long-term growth and profitability. So, when looking at potential stocks to invest in, don't overlook a company's dividend growth rate.

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How Overfitted Trading Strategies Perform Out-of-Sample

Machine learning is a subset of artificial intelligence that involves training algorithms to learn patterns from data and make predictions or decisions without being explicitly programmed. It encompasses a range of techniques, from simple linear regression to complex neural networks, and is used in various applications such as image and speech recognition, fraud detection, personalized recommendations, and finance.

In finance, machine learning (ML) has been applied to developing trading strategies. Reference [1] examined the effectiveness of ML in trading system design. Specifically, it investigates how ML-aided trading strategies perform out-of-sample. The authors pointed out,

This paper analyzed the impact of hyperparameter settings on the predictive performance of support vector machines for stock price movement directions. We tested different settings of hyperparameters in an extensive grid search, applying 10-fold cross-validation for the training set and evaluating the classification performance and strategies’ profitability for out-of-sample data. The results indicated that most models had a high in-sample accuracy but only around 50% when applied to out-of-sample data. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of the models managed to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy in terms of profitability. Specifically, several of the models had an out-of-sample F1 Score close to 65%; however, the models that yielded the best profitabilities followed a chaotic behavior, as the out-of-sample performance of the models showed significant oscillations for small variations on the hyperparameters.

In brief, the authors concluded that overfitted trading strategies, which often have nearly 100% in-sample accuracy, typically have only around 50% out-of-sample accuracy, which is in agreement with the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

The authors also found that the most profitable trading strategies are sensitive to variations in parameters. While we agree with the rest of the article, we don't agree with this point. In our experience, the most robust strategies exhibit little sensitivity to parameter variation.

Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1] Yaohao Peng, João Gabriel de Moraes Souza, Chaos, overfitting and equilibrium: To what extent can machine learning beat the financial market?, International Review of Financial Analysis Volume 95, Part B, October 2024, 103474

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Joint Ventures: Definition, Types, Accounting, Journal Entry, Examples

Companies often get into a relationship with other entities for various reasons. The nature of this relationship determines how companies account for it in the financial statements. One of the complex relationships companies can get into is a joint venture. Before discussing its accounting, it is crucial to understand what they are.

What is a Joint Venture?

A joint venture is a business arrangement where two or more parties collaborate on a specific project or venture while retaining their separate identities. In a joint venture, each party contributes resources, expertise, and capital to achieve mutual goals or objectives. Joint ventures are typically formed for a finite period or specific purpose, such as developing a new product, entering a new market, or completing a project.

Joint ventures can take various forms, including equity joint ventures, where parties invest capital and own shares in the joint venture entity, and contractual joint ventures, where parties enter into a contractual agreement for collaboration without forming a separate legal entity. Joint ventures allow companies to leverage each other's strengths, resources, and capabilities, enabling them to pursue opportunities that may be challenging to achieve individually.

How does a Joint Venture work?

Joint ventures operate based on the terms and conditions established in the joint venture agreement. Parties contribute their respective resources and expertise towards achieving the venture's goals, sharing risks, costs, and profits accordingly. Effective management, communication, and coordination among the parties are crucial for the joint venture's success.

Monitoring performance, tracking progress toward objectives, and addressing any challenges or conflicts that may arise are essential aspects of managing a joint venture. Ultimately, joint ventures offer collaboration, synergy, and risk-sharing, enabling parties opportunities to leverage each other's strengths and capabilities to pursue mutually beneficial business endeavours.

What is the accounting for Joint Ventures?

Accounting for joint ventures involves applying the equity method, where the investor recognizes its initial investment in the joint venture as an asset on its balance sheet. The investor then records its share of the joint venture's net income or loss as income or expense in its income statement. A separate joint venture account is maintained to track the investor's proportional ownership of the joint venture's assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses.

In cases where the investor has significant control or influence over the joint venture, consolidation may be necessary, combining the financial statements of the joint venture with those of the investor to present a consolidated view of their financial position and performance. Companies must disclose pertinent information about joint ventures in their financial statements.

What is the journal entry for Joint Ventures?

When a joint venture is formed, every company must record the investment in its financial statements. On the other hand, it must also decrease the resources it moves into the new venture. The journal entry to recognize the initial investment is as follows.

Dr	Investment in joint venture
Cr	Assets

When the joint venture generates income, it gets divided among the participating companies in a specific percentage. Each company must recognize its share of earnings in the entity as follows.

Dr	Investment in joint venture
Cr	Income

Any income withdrawn from the joint ventures gets recorded as follows.

Dr	Bank or cash
Cr	Investment in joint venture

Finally, losses in the joint venture are treated as below.

Dr	Losses
Cr	Investment in joint venture

Conclusion

A joint venture is a business arrangement formed by various companies collaborating and sharing resources to achieve a combined objective. Each company brings specific resources to the venture to allow the newly formed entity to operate independently. However, the accounting for joint ventures may differ based on the nature of the relationship with the investor companies.

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How Credit Default Swap Trading Impacts Employment

A Credit Default Swap (CDS) is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a borrower, such as a corporation or government. In a CDS contract, the buyer of the swap makes periodic payments to the seller in exchange for protection against the risk of default by the borrower. If the borrower defaults, the seller compensates the buyer, typically by paying the difference between the bond's face value and its market value.

Reference [1] examined the impact of CDS trading on the employment growth of a firm. Firms may expand labour investments due to easier access to capital when CDS-protected creditors are more willing to lend with fewer restrictions. However, firms might also reduce employment growth because defaults with CDS-protected creditors can be more costly, as these creditors are less motivated to renegotiate and care less about borrowers' continuation values. Consequently, CDS trading may increase financial distress risk for firms, potentially leading to workforce reductions. The authors pointed out,

We examine the real impact of the inception of CDS trading on corporate decisions. We focus on managerial decisions on employment growth, which is one of the fundamental issues in corporate investments. We find that introducing CDS contracts on firms' debt reduces employment growth by using a comprehensive dataset of CDS transactions for North American firms from 1997 to 2018. To control for the endogeneity of CDS trading, IV analyses and different matching approaches are used to reduce the observable differences between firms with CDS trading and those without such activities. We also conduct reverse causality tests and placebo tests to verify our results. The findings are consistent with our baseline results. Furthermore, CDS firms reduce employment growth when they are more financially constrained or their managers are more risk averse. Channel analysis reveals that the inception of CDS trading affects employment growth through the financial distress channel since firms tend to be conservative in labor investments when the cost of default increases after CDS trading. In addition, the onset of CDS trading improves firms' labor investment efficiency by averting labor over-investments, suggesting that CDS trading has beneficial consequences.

In short, CDS trading decreases a firm's employment growth, but it also prevents labor over-investment. Thus, it has overall beneficial effects on the firm's efficiency.

Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1] Shaojie Lai, Shiang Liu, Xiaoling Pu, Jianing Zhang, The real effect of CDS trading: Evidence from corporate employment, International Review of Finance. 2024, 1–30

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Activity Ratios: Definition, Formula, Types, Examples, Meaning

Activity ratios are crucial for anyone looking to understand a company's efficiency. These ratios help in analyzing how well a business uses its assets to generate revenue.

By focusing on activity ratios, owners can gain insights into a company's operational performance. Understanding these ratios can reveal a lot about a business's productivity and financial health.

What are Activity Ratios

Activity ratios are key financial metrics that help investors and analysts see how well a company uses its assets to make money and generate cash.

These ratios are handy for comparing different companies in the same industry or tracking a company's performance over time.

There are various types of activity ratios, such as inventory turnover ratios, total asset turnover ratios, and return on equity measurements. These metrics provide a clear picture of a business's efficiency and overall financial health.

How Activity Ratios Work

Activity ratios work by measuring how effectively a company uses its resources, such as assets and inventory, to produce revenue.

These ratios show how quickly a business can turn its assets into cash or sales. For example, the inventory turnover ratio reveals how often a company's inventory is sold and replaced over a period.

The total asset turnover ratio measures how efficiently all of the company's assets generate sales.

By looking at these numbers, people can understand a company's operational efficiency and financial health.

The Main Categories of Activity Ratio

Here are the main categories of activity ratios

1. Total Assets

Total assets include everything a company owns, both short-term and long-term, as shown on its balance sheet. The total asset turnover ratio measures how well a company uses these assets to generate revenue.

A high ratio means the company is using its assets effectively or doesn’t own many assets.

A low ratio suggests that too much money is tied up in assets, which aren’t being used efficiently to make money. This metric helps measure a company's operational efficiency.

2. Fixed Assets

Fixed assets are long-term, tangible assets that aren't used in daily business operations. Examples include property, machinery, vehicles, buildings, and land.

These assets are expected to provide future economic benefits. The fixed asset turnover ratio measures how well a company uses its fixed assets to generate revenue.

A high ratio might mean that the company needs to invest more in capital expenditures, while a low ratio suggests that too much money is tied up in these assets, reducing efficiency.

3. Working Capital

As the name suggests, working capital represents the funds available for a company to conduct its day-to-day business operations. It is calculated by subtracting current liabilities from current assets.

The working capital turnover ratio measures how well a company uses its working capital to generate revenue.

A high ratio means that the company is using its working capital efficiently, while a low ratio suggests that the company may not be utilizing its resources effectively.

Conclusion

Whether it's investors or creditors, understanding a company's activity ratios is crucial in evaluating its financial health. These ratios provide insight into how well a company utilizes its resources to generate revenue and can help identify potential areas of improvement. By understanding these metrics, businesses can make informed decisions and increase their profitability.

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Volatility Risk Premium Across Different Asset Classes

The volatility risk premium (VRP) is the compensation investors receive for bearing the risk associated with fluctuations in market volatility, typically measured as the difference between implied and realized volatility. The VRP in equities has been studied extensively. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the VRP in other asset classes.

Reference [1] examined the VRP in different asset classes. It specifically studied the VRP in 18 different underlyings belonging to the commodity, fixed-income, and equity asset classes. The author pointed out,

This paper provides a focused review of the empirical finding that volatility risk premium can be used as a viable tool for volatility forecasting. Previous research has primarily focused on a limited set of assets, leaving gaps in our understanding. We are thus pioneers in analyzing this problem on a large number of markets, 18 in total. Our newly introduced RIV models, which adjust the current implied volatility for the volatility risk premium, exhibit the greatest forecasting effectiveness compared to IV and GARCH estimates…

As anticipated, the volatility risk premium was mostly positive across the majority of assets. Additionally, we demonstrate a connection between the magnitude of VRP and the trading volume of the underlying futures. Markets characterized by robust trading activity tended to generate positive VRP. Instances of negative VRP, observed in a few markets, are primarily associated with lower volumes in the underlying futures. This suggests that markets with lower trading volumes may lack the necessary depth to establish optimal option prices.

Briefly, the VRP is positive in most markets and is positively correlated with trading volume. Additionally, the VRP can be used to predict future realized volatility.

This is an interesting look at the VRP in different markets. We note, however, that just because the VRP is positive in a given market, it does not necessarily mean that PnL can be easily extracted without taking on too much risk. To earn a respectable risk-adjusted return in a given market, more research is needed.

Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1] Štěpán Havel, Volatility Risk Premium Across Multiple Asset Classes, Charles University, 2024

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Income Tax Expense: Definition, Formula, Calculation, Example, Accounting, Journal Entry

Companies pay different types of taxes depending on the jurisdiction where they operate. However, income tax is usually a consistent requirement in every jurisdiction.

What is Income Tax Expense?

Income tax expense refers to the amount a business or individual must pay in taxes based on their taxable income for a specific period. It encompasses federal, state, and potentially local taxes with any deferred tax liabilities or assets. Calculating income tax expense involves applying relevant tax rates to taxable income, and accounting for deductions, credits, and exemptions permitted by tax laws.

Income tax expense is a significant component of financial statements, notably the income statement, impacting a company's net income and overall profitability. Accurate reporting of income tax expenses is crucial for compliance with accounting standards and providing transparency to stakeholders regarding tax obligations. Income tax expense is typically recorded under operating expenses or as a separate line item.

How does Income Tax work?

Income tax for companies operates on the principle of taxing their taxable income generated within a specific tax jurisdiction. To determine taxable income, companies subtract allowable expenses like operating costs, depreciation, and interest payments from their total revenue. The resulting figure is subject to applicable tax rates.

Tax credits and incentives may also be available to companies, reducing their income tax liability and encouraging certain activities or investments. Companies must file annual tax returns, accurately reporting their financial information and taxable income to tax authorities to ensure compliance with tax regulations. Managing income tax for companies involves strategic tax planning to optimize their tax position.

What is the accounting for Income Tax Expenses?

Accounting for income tax expenses is a critical aspect of financial reporting for companies. It involves calculating taxable income based on applicable tax laws and regulations, considering deductions, credits, and other tax-related items. Companies recognize deferred tax assets and liabilities on their balance sheets to account for temporary differences between financial and tax reporting, reflecting future tax benefits or obligations.

The provision for income tax expense is made in financial statements, representing the estimated amount of income taxes payable or refundable for the period. The effective tax rate, derived from dividing income tax expense by pre-tax income, provides insights into the company's tax efficiency and comparative tax burdens. Detailed disclosures related to income taxes, including explanations of deferred tax items, tax rates, credits, uncertainties, and contingencies, are provided in financial statement footnotes.

What is the journal entry for Income Tax Expense?

Once a company calculates its income tax payable, it must record an expense in the income statement. However, the payment usually occurs in a different period. Therefore, the company must also recognize an income tax payable liability. The journal entry for it is below.

Dr	Income tax expense
Cr	Income tax payable

Once the company pays its income tax, it can remove the liability as follows.

Dr	Income tax payable
Cr	Bank

Example

Green Co. calculates its income tax payable for the year to be $25,000. Based on this figure, the company records the income tax expense as follows.

Dr	Income tax expense	$25,000
Cr	Income tax payable	$25,000

In the next fiscal year, Green Co. pays off the full amount owed for taxes. It records the entry as follows.

Dr	Income tax payable	$25,000
Cr	Bank	$25,000

Conclusion

Income tax expense represents the amount a company pays in taxes related to its earnings. Usually, it entails determining the taxable income, which might differ from the income recorded on the income statement. Once calculated, companies must record the expense while creating a liability to pay off the taxes later.

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Implied Volatilities From a Behavioural Finance Perspective

We have discussed at length the implied volatility and its relationships with realized volatility, volatility skew, dividend yield, and correlations. Moreover, it is interesting to examine implied volatility from a behavioural finance perspective. Reference [1] studied the relationship between various countries' implied volatilities and their cultural characteristics. Specifically, it utilized Hofstede's six measures of national culture [2] to examine the implied volatilities of 15 countries. These measures are:

• Power Distance (PDI),
• Individualism vs. Collectivism(IDV),
• Masculinity vs. Femininity (MAS),
• Uncertainty Avoidance (UAI),
• Long-term vs. Short-term Orientation (LTOWVS) and
• Indulgence vs. Restraint (IVR).

The countries in the study are Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, the Russian Federation, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the USA. The author pointed out,

This paper confirms the significant long-term statistical relationship between national culture and equity market volatility levels…The five main findings in this study are summarized as follows:

(1) The market volatility level will be higher if market participants accept a hierarchical order in which everybody has a place and which needs no further justification (PDI), or if they prefer a loosely knit society in which individuals are expected to take care of only themselves and their immediate families (IDV).

(2) The market volatility level will be lower if the members of a society feel uncomfortable with uncertainty and ambiguity (UAI).

(3) The market volatility level will be higher for both highly masculine and highly feminine societies. The volatility level will be lower when the measure rests around the medium level of MAS. A society with a high MAS index prefers achievement, heroism, assertiveness and material rewards for success. This type of society values cooperation, modesty, caring for the weak, and quality of life.

(4) The market volatility level will be higher for both highly normative and highly pragmatic societies with high and low LTOWVS indices, respectively. The volatility level will be lower if the measure rests around the medium level of the LTOWVS index. ..

 (5) Societies with high levels of either indulgence or restraint demonstrate a lower volatility level. Indulgence represents a society that allows for the enjoyment of life and having fun. Restraint represents a society that suppresses the gratification of needs and desires.

In short, there is a link between implied volatility and cultural characteristics.

This is an interesting area of research. Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1]  Wei-han Liu, National culture effects on stock market volatility level, Empirical Economics (2019) 57:1229–1253

[2] Hofstede GH (1980) Culture’s consequence. Sage Publications, New York

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Economic Depression: Definition, Reasons, Meaning, Preparation, vs. Recession

In today's world, understanding economic depression is crucial. This period can affect everyone’s daily life, from job availability to the cost of goods. Many people may feel uncertain about their financial future during such times.

By learning more about economic depression, individuals can be better prepared and make smarter decisions.

What is an Economic Depression

An economic depression is a long period where the economy struggles a lot. This usually means the country's economy shrinks, as shown by a drop in the gross domestic product (GDP).

Many people lose their jobs, and there are higher levels of poverty and homelessness. The stock market also falls sharply, and many individuals and businesses go bankrupt.

While there is no exact definition, signs include more than a 10% drop in GDP, around 20% unemployment, and a downturn lasting over a year or two.

Main Reasons for Economic Depression

There are several possible reasons for an economic depression, and it's usually a mix of factors that lead to such a big drop. - some of the main reasons for an economic depression include

1. High Unemployment

When many people lose their jobs, they have less money to spend. This can hurt the economy because businesses make less money and might have to close or lay off more workers, leading to even higher unemployment.

2. Decreased Consumer Spending

If people are worried about their money, they tend to spend less. This drop in spending means fewer sales for businesses, which can lead to layoffs and closures. Less consumer spending slows down the whole economy.

3. Business Failures

Many businesses closing their doors can create a domino effect. When businesses fail, people lose jobs, suppliers lose customers, and the overall economic activity decreases. This adds to the economic downturn.

4. Stock Market Crash

A big drop in stock prices can cause panic and loss of wealth. People and businesses may cut back on spending and investment, further hurting the economy. A stock market crash can also make it harder for companies to raise money.

5. Bank Failures

If banks fail, people and businesses lose their savings and access to credit. Without loans, it becomes hard to buy homes, start businesses, or invest in opportunities.

Bank failures can freeze up important financial activities, worsening the depression.

6. Reduced International Trade

When countries stop trading as much with each other, economies suffer.

Businesses lose out on selling their products abroad, and people miss out on cheaper goods from other countries. Reduced trade limits growth and can deepen an economic depression.

Difference Between Recession and Depression

People often confuse recession with depression, but they are two different things.

A recession is a short-term economic downturn that typically lasts a few months to a year - during a recession, the economy slows down, leading to job losses and reduced spending.

Depression is much more severe and prolonged, lasting several years. In a depression, the economy shrinks significantly, unemployment rates soar, and many businesses fail.

While recessions are part of regular economic cycles, depressions are rare and cause widespread hardship.

How to Prepare for an Economic Depression

While it's hard to predict when an economic depression will occur, some steps can be taken to prepare for one.

1. Build an emergency fund - Having savings set aside can help cushion the blow of a job loss or business failure.
2. Pay off debt - During a depression, it may be harder to make payments on debt. Paying off debt before a depression hits can help reduce financial stress.
3. Diversify your investments - Investing in a variety of assets can help protect your wealth during an economic downturn.
4. Cut back on unnecessary expenses - During a depression, it's important to prioritize necessary expenses and cut back on non-essential ones.
5. Develop new skills - During a depression, jobs become scarce, and competition increases. Developing new skills can make you more marketable in the job market.

Conclusion

Understanding economic depression is essential for recognizing its impacts and preparing for tough times. By knowing the main reasons and how it differs from a recession, people and businesses can take steps to protect themselves. Learning from the past can help create strategies to weather economic downturns. With a little bit of preparation, individuals and businesses can better tackle an economic depression.

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Does Momentum Anomaly Really Exist?

The momentum anomaly in the stock market refers to the phenomenon where stocks that have performed well in the past continue to perform well in the near future, and those that have performed poorly continue to underperform. Momentum strategies exploit this anomaly by buying stocks with high past returns and selling those with low past returns, often leading to outperformance.

Despite its historical success, the momentum anomaly remains a subject of extensive research and debate regarding its persistence and underlying causes. Reference [1] challenges many claims made by pro-momentum researchers. The author pointed out,

This study tests whether RMVs are governed by power laws. In doing, various RMV data frequencies were analyzed. The general findings of this study indicate that regardless of the methodology used to estimate power-law exponents, the power-law null hypothesis cannot be rejected. Testing for invariance shows that power-law behavior is present across all time frequencies…

Surprisingly, the empirical outcome documented here suggests rather the opposite; that is, the lower the time frequency, the more extreme events can be expected in the variance processes, which is empirically manifested in a lower economic magnitude of the power-law exponent. Overall, the results of this study show that the risk for the momentum strategy is infinite, which is empirically manifested in power-law exponents of α < 2 which has, in turn, some serious consequences. First, in finite samples, we do not observe the time-honored, pervasive “momentum premium,” which is documented to correspond to 1% per month across various otherwise unrelated asset classes; second, the momentum premium does not have a defined t-statistic regardless of time frequency. The claim raised by many scholars in numerous momentum studies published in leading finance outlets that “the momentum premium exhibits a statistically significant t-statistic” is therefore invalid. Moreover, other metrics incorporating variances or functions of it, such as Sharpe ratios, are not defined either for this investment vehicle.

Basically, the author studied the scaling behaviour of realized momentum variances (RMV) of momentum portfolios. He concluded that momentum risk is infinite regardless of the data frequency, implying that (i) t-statistics for this strategy do not exist, (ii) correlation-based metrics such as Sharpe ratios do not exist either, and (iii) the momentum premium is not observable in reality.

This article refutes many research findings in momentum research. It will have significant implications for the design of momentum strategies.

Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1] Klaus Grobys, Science or scientism? On the momentum illusion, Annals of Finance, 2024

Post Source Here: Does Momentum Anomaly Really Exist?

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Cost Variance: Definition, Formula, Calculation, Example, Equation, Meaning

Companies strive to control the costs related to projects. It is a crucial part of project management. One of the metrics often used to determine the reasonability of project costs is cost variance.

What is Cost Variance?

Cost variance is a critical metric in project management and accounting that assesses the financial performance of a project by comparing the budgeted or planned costs with the actual costs incurred. It provides insights into whether a project is adhering to its budget, identifying discrepancies that may require corrective actions. Interpreting cost variance helps project managers determine if a project is under or over budget.

The primary components of cost variance are the earned value (EV), which represents the budgeted amount for the work completed, and the actual cost (AC), which is the total expenditure recorded for accomplishing the objective. A positive cost variance indicates the project is under budget, while a negative cost variance shows it is over budget. A zero cost variance means the project is exactly on budget.

How to calculate Cost Variance?

As mentioned above, cost variance represents the differences between earned value and actual cost for a specific project. Therefore, companies must determine these two for the calculation. First, earned value refers to the budgeted amount for the actual work completed to date. It reflects the value of the work performed based on the project's budget.

On the other hand, actual cost is the total expenditure incurred and recorded for the work performed during a specific period. It includes all costs, such as labour, materials, and overheads. Once companies determine these two, they can use the formula for cost variance as below.

Cost variance (CV)=Earned value (EV)- Actual cost (AC)

Interpreting the cost variance is also straightforward, as mentioned above. However, companies also consider other factors when determining whether a project is under or over budget. The cost variance formula above only shows the difference between the two figures.

Example

Blue Co. embarks on a construction project with a planned budget of $60,000 (earned, EV) to complete certain milestones. However, as the project progresses, the actual costs (actual cost, AC) incurred amount to $65,000. Blue Co. can calculate its cost variance as below.

Cost variance (CV) = Earned value (EV) - Actual cost (AC)

CV = $60,000 - $65,000

CV = -$5,000

This negative variance indicates that the actual costs have exceeded the budgeted amount by $5,000. Such a situation can arise due to factors such as unexpected material price increases, labour overruns, or scope changes during the project's execution.

What are the causes of Cost Variance?

Cost variance can stem from various factors, often resulting in deviations from the planned or budgeted costs. One primary cause of cost variance is inaccurate estimation during project planning. If the initial budget doesn't accurately reflect the actual costs of resources, materials, labour, and other expenses, it can lead to discrepancies between planned and actual expenditures.

Changes in project scope or requirements can also contribute significantly to cost variance. When the project scope expands beyond the original plan, additional resources and efforts are required, leading to higher costs than initially budgeted. Similarly, unexpected events or risks such as market fluctuations, regulatory changes, or disruptions in supply chains can impact project costs, causing deviations from the budgeted amounts.

Conclusion

Cost variance is a crucial metric in project management. It allows companies to calculate the difference between the earned value and the actual project cost. Companies can evaluate how a project fared against its budgeted amount by considering this difference. Several factors can cause a cost variance, such as inaccurate budgets, changes in project scope, and unexpected events.

Post Source Here: Cost Variance: Definition, Formula, Calculation, Example, Equation, Meaning

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Relationship Between Implied Volatility and Dividend Yield

Much has been discussed about the relationship between implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility, between IVs of different markets, asset classes, maturities, etc. However little has been discussed about the relationship between IV and dividend yield.

The dividend yield is a financial ratio that indicates how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its stock price. It is calculated by dividing the annual dividends per share by the current market price per share. Dividend yield provides investors with a measure of the income they can expect to earn from holding a stock, expressed as a percentage.

Reference [1] explored the relationship between IV and dividend yield. The authors pointed out,

The main regression on call option implied volatility revealed that dividend yield exhibited negative coefficients across all models, however, the results were statistically insignificant in half of the models. This suggests that changes in dividend yield have a consistent impact on call option implied volatility in half of the models, aligning more with the Bird-in-hand theory than the dividend irrelevancy theory. The regression on put option implied volatility showed negative and significant coefficients for dividend yield across most models, indicating a stronger and more consistent relationship compared to call options. This is in conjunction with the Bird-in-hand theory, suggesting that higher dividend yields lead to lower implied volatility in put options…

Overall, our findings support our hypothesis, indicating that a positive change in a firm's dividend yield tends to affect future volatility negatively. This effect was particularly significant in the put option models but also showed signs of significance in the call option models. The consistent negative coefficients for dividend yield across most models in both put and call option regressions suggest that higher dividend yields lead to lower implied volatility, thus endorsing the Bird-in-hand theory in options markets.

Essentially, there exists a negative relationship between dividend yield and IV, and this relationship is stronger for puts than calls. Overall, the study supports the bird-in-hand theory rather than the dividend irrelevance theory.

Let us know what you think in the comments below or in the discussion forum.

References

[1] Jonathan Nestenborg, Gustav Sjöberg, Option Implied Volatility and Dividend Yields, Linnaeus University, 2024

Originally Published Here: Relationship Between Implied Volatility and Dividend Yield

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Austerity Policies: Definition, Examples, Meaning, Importance, Pros and Cons

Austerity policies have a huge impact on economies and people's daily lives. They are important because they shape how governments manage their budgets, especially during tough economic times.

These policies can change the way public services are provided and affect employment levels.

Understanding austerity is key to grasping broader economic issues and how they influence everything from healthcare to education to infrastructure.

What are Austerity Policies?

Austerity policies are steps taken by governments to cut back on spending and lower the budget deficit. These measures often involve raising taxes and cutting funding for various government programs.

As a result, there might be fewer social services available, and people could find they have less disposable income.

These policies aim to balance the government's budget but can lead to hardships for many citizens during their implementation.

How Austerity Policies Work

Austerity policies work by reducing government spending and increasing revenue to balance the budget. When a country faces high debt, the government might decide to spend less on public services and increase taxes.

Cutting spending can include reducing budgets for healthcare, education, and welfare programs. At the same time, raising taxes means people and businesses pay more to the government.

These combined efforts aim to reduce the deficit and control debt. However, such measures can slow economic growth and lead to higher unemployment.

This happens because there is less money circulating in the economy - despite the challenges, austerity policies are used to create long-term financial stability.

Importance of Austerity Policies

Here are some of the key reasons why austerity policies are so important

1. Reducing National Debt

Austerity policies are crucial for reducing national debt. High levels of debt can lead to increased interest payments, which take away resources from other essential services.

By cutting spending and raising taxes, the government can lower its debt levels, creating a more stable financial environment.

2. Preventing Economic Crises

Implementing austerity measures helps prevent economic crises. When a country has a large deficit, it risks losing control over its finances.

Austerity policies can bring the budget back in balance, reducing the likelihood of severe financial problems that could affect the entire economy.

3. Improving Government Efficiency

Austerity policies push the government to use resources more efficiently. By cutting unnecessary programs and focusing on essential services, the government can improve its overall performance.

This leads to better quality services and more effective public spending.

4. Restoring Investor Confidence

Investors look for stability before putting their money into a country. Austerity policies show that the government is serious about managing its finances responsibly.

This can restore investor confidence, attracting more investment and promoting economic growth.

5. Promoting Sustainable Growth

Austerity measures aim for long-term economic health by balancing the budget. Short-term sacrifices can lead to sustainable growth over time.

By managing finances carefully, the government creates an environment where businesses can thrive, leading to a stronger and more resilient economy.

Conclusion

Austerity policies play a key role in managing a country's finances. By reducing national debt, preventing crises, improving government efficiency, restoring investor confidence, and promoting sustainable growth, these measures help build a more stable economy. Although they can be tough in the short term, their long-term benefits make them a crucial tool for achieving financial stability and prosperity.

Originally Published Here: Austerity Policies: Definition, Examples, Meaning, Importance, Pros and Cons

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